Additionally, Iowa and Maine rank among the most rural states in the country, which is another predictor of GOP-leaning politics. Suffice it to say that, with Trump on the ballot this November, many of the forces we saw in 2016 will be prevalent again in 2020. Some states are just perennial swing states How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how the state is forecasted to vote in 2020, as of Aug. 25 80% of outcomes fall in this range in our 2020 forecast AVERAGE PARTISAN LEAN As things stand, the forecast model expects these states to vote more or less like they did in 2016 — so they’ll be as competitive as ever. another predictor of GOP-leaning politics, people of color tend to vote more Democratic, Joe Biden leads by about 9 points nationally, large share of its Latino vote is Cuban American. For one thing, these states are more racially and ethnically diverse than most of the other states we’ve looked at — Arizona and Texas have large Hispanic populations, for instance, while Georgia has a sizable Black electorate — and people of color tend to vote more Democratic. We zoomed in on how 16 battleground states have voted relative to the country as a whole since 2000 — or how much more Republican or Democratic they are relative to the nation1For instance, Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by about 2 points in 2016, but President Trump won Florida by about 1 point in the same election, so Florida was about 3 points more Republican than the country. Or Maine and Michigan, which hadn’t been all that competitive in 2008 or 2012, but lurched to the right in 2016. Arizona, Georgia and Texas all moved at least 4 points to the left in 2016, and it’s possible they’ll move even farther in 2020. In other words, 2016 marked a significant departure from how these states had voted in recent years; each state swung 7 points or more to the right, the biggest swings in that election. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars are particularly large. who are non-Hispanic white with less than a bachelor’s degree, a bloc that moved sharply toward the GOP in 2016. With the help of Swing Left—a national grassroots organization founded after the 2016 election—we can make a difference by paying attention to the 12 Super States, a.k.a. For Democrats, the hope would be that those three states trend in ways similar to Colorado and Virginia, two formerly red states whose diverse and highly educated electorates have moved them to the left over the past two decades. Will states like Iowa or Ohio move further to the right? The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Additionally, North Carolina’s white voters are somewhat more Republican-leaning, and the state tends to be more rural than Virginia. Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona for the first time since 1988, while Republicans only narrowly won Texas’s Senate race and Georgia’s gubernatorial contest. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t gradual (and sometimes, not so gradual) shifts underway. Use our maps, polls and analysis to follow top battlegrounds in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as safe states, as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which they can draw a sufficient share of the electorate. One reason why these states didn’t lurch as far to the right is that four of them3Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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