Last updated: Sat Sep 26, 2020. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. But even though the prize of a 6-3 conservative majority on the court awaits Republicans, this move isn’t without risks. The predictions assign ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat. Chances of a Republican win in the closest Senate races. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. The current 2020 Senate forecast from Inside Elections. Most importantly, polling is a snapshot in time. 35.56 % 49. Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Click me! Senate simulations. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. Our model depends primarily on polls to predict vote outcomes. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Fun fact: Incumbents who were appointed to their seat lose more often than elected incumbents, so they don’t get an incumbency boost in our model. These states were carried by less than 5 points in the 2016 presidential race. Use their map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.September 21: Maine moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; South Carolina Likely to Leans Republican. Congrats, you made it to the bottom! September 8: Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Kansas and South Carolina from Likely to Leans Democratic; Tennessee from Likely to Safe Republican. Chances of a Republican win in swing states. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate election forecast. Keep in Mind: Polling is quite limited in most states and not all nominees have been determined. Chance of Democrats or Republicans winning a Senate majority over time. Below is the probability of a Republican victory in Senate races within 85% probability. Last updated: Tue Sep 22, 2020. Looking for the national forecast? Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.September 22: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. Updated every two hours, this is an interactive Senate map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest. All Rights Reserved. The incumbent senator would need to call in a few more miracles to get re-elected in a year in which Trump will get over 60 percent in Alabama. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all four of these projections are shown in the darkest shade. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff. All rights reserved. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. Click here to see the presidential forecast. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. Updated daily. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding. 2020 Election Forecast Using Powerful Prediction Models In the critical election it would appear that the Democrats have a favorable map when it comes to the Senate in 2020. Read the analysis. Both were very fortunate to have won their special elections against very bad opponents, but reversion to the political mean is very hard to prevent. Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. The Senate partisan control vote and probability is estimated using 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Read the Analysis. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast. Distribution of Senate race control are generated based on 10k simulations. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. Every day, our model explores 10,000 paths each Senate race could take. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split. © 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. With only 11 seats to defend and 22 seats that the other party has to defend it would appear ripe for a Realigning Election … We think control of the Senate is too close to call. S. Click here to see the Senate forecast + Want to go back to the national forecast? September 18: South Carolina moves from Likely to Leans Republican. Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Democrats having a. Click the magnifying glass in the lower left! Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. Want to see other versions of the forecast? The current 2020 Senate forecast from The Cook Political Report. Updated daily. Updated three times daily, this map looks at this year's 35 Senate races based purely on polling. The current 2020 Senate race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2020 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast. Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Democrats having a 58 % probability of winning the Senate majority. Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the Senate?

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