We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind. Minnesota’s Iron Range. They’re not actually connected. says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously, As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, The Trump administration is challenging a court ruling that prevents it from ending the census early, Trump says he won’t commit to leaving office if he loses the election because of a “ballot scam”, The promise and peril of the EU’s new asylum plan, Demand grows for Kentucky AG to release the grand jury report in the Breonna Taylor case. States of the Race. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. According to CNN, just 13 percent of registered voters either haven’t decided or are still open to changing their minds, and a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were still undecided. Polling, however, is not. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. In their stead are states like Arizona and Georgia — which haven’t voted for a Democratic nominee since the 1990s — and Minnesota, which hasn’t voted for a Republican in nearly a half-century. And given one needs only to win the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results. In fact, Trump campaign officials view Nevada as part of an “alternate route” to winning 270 electoral votes, should the president lose some of the states that handed him victory in 2016. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. The national polls. — Marc Caputo, The prospect of turning Georgia blue for the first time since 1992 is a stretch. Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners. The city of Philadelphia. The latest polling average puts Biden ahead of Trump nationally. Missing from this swing state list are familiar presidential battlegrounds like Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. — David Siders, Listen to analysts, candidates and operatives from both major parties in North Carolina, and what emerges is a specific image of a decisive voter. Biden has to increase his current share among Latino voters and recapture some of the places that flipped to Trump after twice voting for President Barack Obama. Arizona. Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard. New CBS News/YouGov polls show President Donald Trump is in trouble in three states he won in 2016. Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties. Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll, polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable. Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what’s happening in the news, from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. “In 2016 I almost won Minnesota,” Trump tweeted last year. Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results. voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes. Design, development and production by Isabel Dobrin and Kamran Rahman.
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